Spark of Hope is SO CLOSE
Spark of Hope launches this Friday, and if you’re anything like me you can’t wait to crack open some packs and build new decks. The day a new set releases is always exciting! My local group is gathering for both a draft event and a sealed event, which inevitably will lead to a flurry of trades and offers back and forth for cards. It’s likely that I’ll make more trades this weekend than I will the rest of the summer combined! I like the guys in my local, and trading is fun, but I also don’t want to lose a lot of value on my new pulls. How do I make sure that doesn’t happen?
I Once Traded a Snoke for a Rex (Really)
There are quite a few ways I could make sure I don’t accidentally undervalue my fresh cards. I could sort through sold listings on eBay, which always seems popular, or I could ask around in some of the discord chats for values. I personally chose, for Spark of Hope, to download The Chance Cube’s Price Watch app. The app is pretty cool, and I’ll have a screenshot or two from it in this article. It’s updated regularly with prices from major game stores, and can help you quickly search up a card’s average value. A big part of the appeal is how easy the app is to use – very little effort on my part to find out a common price for cards. This is a shameless plug, but it’s also the truth!
I’m Biased, but The Price Watch IS a Good App
The Price Watch already has pre-sale values uploaded for Spark of Hope. When considering pre-sale prices, game stores have to answer a question – how much will people buy this card for? There are 17 legendaries in this set, and if we assume we can’t get double legendaries in a single box, the probability of pulling a certain legendary in a box is pretty straightforward. Each legendary you pull has a 1/17 chance to be the one you want, and there are six legendaries per box, so your probability is a straight 6/17 (which comes out to around 35%). Without making this a math post, in two boxes you’re more likely than not to see a legendary you want (around 65%). Logically, this means that every legendary should be roughly equal in value (I wish). Pull rate is not the only thing that determines the value of a card, though it is a contributing factor.
Supply and Demand
Card values, like anything else, are driven by supply and demand. If you only need one copy of a legendary, it will be less valuable on the secondary market. Additionally, when considering value in card games, the meta matters. If a card is “good,” it will be worth more, because demand for it will be higher. With games based on a specific IP, like Star Wars: Destiny, popular characters or moments carry extra collectible value. So, basically, legendaries are most valuable when they are: a), good in the meta; b), something you need multiple copies of; and, c), something that has appeal to collectors.
Here Are My Predictions About Legendary Values In Spark of Hope!
It will be interesting to see which of the pre-sale values on Spark of Hope legendaries will be closest to the average value that these cards have a month from now. Keep in mind that as more product is sold, more copies of these cards will exist out in the wild, and the demand for them will drop as the supply increases. Cards are always most valuable when supply is at its lowest and demand is at its highest.
On either side of this paragraph are the current pre-sale prices for Spark of Hope legendaries. The rest of this article will consist of my best guesses about what these cards will end up being worth after the crazy pre-sale prices come down a little. This is not an article reviewing the legendaries, but some of my feelings about them will be included. I evaluated these cards by considering their quality (is the card a “meta” card), the amount of them you need (typically demand is higher on characters since you have to pull them twice), and how collectible they are (people WANT to pull characters like Vader, which creates extra demand).
Maul (SH003, 29.99)
Maul is a legendary players will want two copies of, and his character is reasonably popular. I don’t know that he’ll be highly meta relevant, but I would be comfortable trading him at or around his presale price. He will likely drop closer to 15-20 dollars per as the set ages.
Talisman of Resurrection (SH019, 19.99)
This is a high price. This is a card that people will not want for its collectible value. It also looks like it will have minimal meta use (right now). Expect this card to drop in value by around 50%.
Thrawn (SH023, 34.99)
Like Maul, Thrawn is a popular character and players will want two copies of him. Thrawn has a questionable (at best) place in the meta, and while he looks fun to play I don’t know that he’s “good.” I expect him to drop to around 20 dollars per relatively quickly.
Superlaser Siege Cannon (SH034, 14.99)
Fun effect, but substantially worse than its primary competition in support decks. This will end up dropping to 5-10 dollars pretty quickly.
Jango Fett (SH040, 27.49)
Jango has the popularity and the need for two copies going for his value. He may see play in the meta, so I’m cautiously going to say he’ll stick closer to 25 dollars than Maul or Thrawn will.
Pulse Cannon (SH054, 19.99)
Upgrades just aren’t great in the meta right now. I think Pulse Cannon is a very good card, but it’s hard to go very high on the value. This could see some play, but my instinct is it ends up in the 10 dollar range.
R2-D2 (SH056, 39.99)
Dang, forty bucks for the little droid is high. That said, his most obvious pairing is with C-3PO (SH077), and that pairing looks like it’ll be pretty good in the meta as a support deck. A meta relevant card you need two copies of, particularly one with a recognizable character, will be expensive. I don’t think R2 will stay even at forty dollars a pop, but thirty isn’t out of the question. A lot of it depends on how good he ends up being in the Spark of Hope meta.
Qui-Gon Jinn’s Spirit (SH070, 21.99)
Not a bad card, but probably a one-of in many decks. If Hero Blue was a little better, this might hold some value, but as it stands, I think this one will drop to the 10 dollar range and stay there.
Yoda’s Lightsaber (SH074, 37.49)
This card is good. Despite that, this card is probably worth half of its early pricing (at most). Again, if Hero Blue was better I would have more confidence in this card’s value.
Amilyn Holdo (SH075, 21.99)
Holdo could go either way, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say she actually goes up a little in value, if someone can break open a deck with her ability. She has potential. She’s currently held back from having a lot of collectible value (like the other legendary characters in the set) by the fact her character is not well liked by many fans of The Last Jedi.
C-3PO (SH077, 39.99)
See R2-D2. I have the same opinion on both.
Han Solo (SH096, 32.49)
The fourth version of Han is pretty good, collectible, and you need two copies of him. He’ll probably stay north of 20 dollars in value. He reminds me a little of Mother Talzin, and that’s a good thing.
Mr. Bones (SH106, 21.49)
If this were a villain droid, this card might actually go up from its 21 dollar pre-sale value. As it stands, I think he’ll drop down to the 10-15 dollar range.
Han Solo’s Blaster (SH108, 24.99)
I like this gun at 15-20, dollars, even though I don’t love upgrades right now. This may be the best ranged upgrade in standard, and it will be priced like it – even as a unique weapon.
Niman Mastery (SH122, 19.49)
This card will go up. I’ll guess 25-30 dollars as a final spot. It’s easily one of the best Blue upgrades in standard, and it’s one you’ll want two copies of. I think this card will go in Reylo decks, Yoda decks, and any other Blue deck that can gain value from special sides.
Admiral (SH136, 19.49)
Admiral is a great card, but I’ll have to see it in action before I’ll believe that it has a niche to carve in the meta. I would trade for this at 15 dollars and feel comfortable that it won’t drop much below that.
Canto Bight Security (SH150, 19.99)
This card isn’t bad, and it could see play in decks that are looking for a little more bang for their buck than they get from current ramp supports. In the right meta it’s a great card. Let’s say it’ll drop to 10 dollars, but could work its way back up if GenCon shakes out to be a lot of mill.
Okay, How Awful Were Those Guesses?!
Well, those are my predictions! The Price Watch app will continue to update as more stores add their pre-sale prices. I gave you my guesses… what are yours? Am I totally wrong about a card? Call me out in the comments or on The Chance Cube’s Facebook or Twitter and we can discuss it!
Support The Chance Cube
Do you enjoy the content provided by The Chance Cube? Would you like to connect even further with The Chance Cube Family? Consider supporting this content by joining our Patreon. We are a team dedicated to media coverage and community building, committed to bringing you the best of this game, sharing the joy and community that comes with it. Our Patreons enjoy membership in The Chance Cube Hangout, our Facebook group for supporters of the channel, and we have additional tiers that include gifts from us to you as a thanks for the generous support. Find out more at patreon.com/thechancecube.