To buy cases, boxes, packs, or singles is a decision we are all faced with when we look at a set of cards we want to acquire in the Customizable Card Game (CCG) market. Whatever your reasons are for choosing one method over the other, it is high time we started discussing Expected Value in Star Wars: Destiny
Expected Value is a concept that has been around for years in the CCG market, as many try to evaluate the best, most cost-effective way to purchase their project, and now that Star Wars: Destiny is past its first rotation, we would like to start looking at Expected Value more readily. AND, with our recent update to the Price Watch, we are in a better position than ever to discuss Expected Value.
What is Expected Value?
Many other gaming sites have explored the topic, so instead of reinventing the wheel, I’m going to borrow MTG GoldFish’s explanation:
Expected value basically refers to the amount of value (in US dollars) you can expect to open from a booster box, on average. We calculate the odds of opening each individual card in a box… which in turn allows us to calculate how much value the potential of opening each card adds to a booster box. Then, we add everything together, which gives us the total expected value for the box. Of course, since we are working with averages, no individual box is guaranteed to hit the expected value number—you could run well and get more value or run poorly and get less—but the number should be pretty accurate over the course of hundreds or thousands of boxes.
-Saffron Olive, MTG Goldfish
For this particular examination, we will be utilizing The Chance Cube’s Price Watch LOW value. Please keep in mind that these prices do not factor in shipping costs and are listed in U.S dollars.
Convergence: LEGENDARY
Convergence is packed with some great Legendaries that are pulling a pretty penny out there in the wild. Between Megablaster Troopers (CV031), Entourage (CV152), Palpatine (CV002), Padme (CV075), and Soresu Mastery (CV119), the value of these Legendary cards are bringing up the average quite a bit.
Below is a listing of every Legendary in the set and its current (as of May 17, 2019) LOW value. These seventeen Legendaries average out to $17.11.
Some of this value will be due to the newness of this set, and the power that these cards have in the Standard meta of the game. The likelihood that they will hold this value over time, seems suspect, especially given the pricing trend we’ve seen so far. However, at the current state of the game, this is one highly valued group of card.
| Captain Phasma – Stormtrooper Commander | $17.62 |
| Chewbacca – The Beast | $7.55 |
| Chewbacca’s Blaster Rifle | $6.00 |
| Crime Lord | $2.99 |
| Enfys Nest – Fearsome Outlaw | $17.15 |
| Entourage | $37.99 |
| Force Storm | $18.75 |
| Jabba The Hutt – Influential Kingpin | $10.99 |
| LAAT Gunship | $4.14 |
| Mace Windu’s Lightsaber | $5.14 |
| Megablaster Troopers | $34.99 |
| Padme Amidala – Resolute Senator | $25.13 |
| Palpatine – Unlimited Power | $25.99 |
| Palpatine’s Lightsaber | $19.14 |
| Quicksilver Baton | $13.00 |
| Soresu Mastery | $29.99 |
| Yoda’s Spirit | $14.25 |
Convergence: RARES
While the Legendaries are trending high, the rares are not fairing as well. For a new set, we would expect to see the value of rares exceeding the value of previous sets, however, Convergence comes in at an average value of $1.03 for its 43 rare cards.
Notable standouts include the First Order Stormtrooper (CV020), Conscript Squad (CV134), and Watto (CV038). Very few of the other rares in this set have attracted too much attention.
Convergence: COMMONS AND UNCOMMONS
In many games, commons and uncommons are looked at in bulk prices, but with Star Wars: Destiny, considering the power that these cards can sometimes have, we will continue to utilize pricing data aggregated from various game stores around the globe.
Uncommons in this set are pulling an average value of $0.54, a modest value, pulled up by the popularity of Riot Shield (CV140), itself fetching more than many rares in this set.
Commons are sitting at an average value of $0.13, many of which are available for a dime. There are no notable standouts from a valuation standpoint.
Convergence: BOXES OR SINGLES?
At this time, the answer is BOXES. Yes, BOXES! There are many retailers who are selling boxes around the $90 price point, which is a significant value considering the value that this set brings.
To recap, the average value of each rarity is as follows:
Legendary – $17.11
Rare – $1.03
Uncommon – $.54
Common – $.13
Expectect Value of a Booster Box:
(Legendary X 6) + (Rare X 30) + (Uncommon X 36) + (Common x 108) = Expected Value of a Booster Box
Convergence Expected Value: $166.89
Dice Cards Only: $133.49
Booster Pack: $4.64
What do these numbers tell us? If we were to buy a box now and sell its contents at the lowest market value of the card, we would make a profit. Now remember, no box will be this exact valuation. Some will be higher, and others lower, but over time and enough boxes, the value will even out to this.
What about the rest?
As of May 17, 2019, the expected value of Star Wars: Destiny products are as follows:
| Set | Booster Box | Booster Box (Dice Cards) | Booster Pack |
| Convergence | $166.89 | $133.49 | $4.64 |
| Across the Galaxy | $147.00 | $124.76 | $4.08 |
| Way of the Force | $98.99 | $77.56 | $2.75 |
| Legacies | $83.66 | $62.71 | $2.32 |
| Two-Player Box | $14.56 | ||
| Rivals | $17.42 | ||
| Empire at War | $46.09 | $32.49 | $1.28 |
| Spirit of Rebellion | $41.13 | $25.31 | $1.14 |
| Awakenings | $25.68 | $14.86 | $0.71 |
DISCLAIMER: We do not recommend trying to make a profit by buying boxes and selling their content. The actual practice is challenging and the market fluctuates frequently enough that this could be a foolhardy effort. The statistics in this article are for informational purposes only. What you do with the information is up to you.
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